WILL NIGERIA GO INTO A POLITICAL TURMOIL OVER MISMANAGEMENT OF ELECTIONS BY THE ELECTORAL UMPIRE, INEC, AND THE COURTS?
by Frank Talk 10 June 2026
On January 16, 2027, Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, goes to a general election once again – it will be the 14th time since the most populous African country has held elections after decades of military rule.
But there are fears that the process will not go on smoothly. There have been strong indications that the government in power has been using underhanded means to manipulate the processes leading to the elections, which may render them uncredible and throw the country into a state of chaos.
There are questions as to whether the nation’s electoral umpire, the so styled Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, is truly independent.
Image: Prof. Joas Amupitan, chairman of Nigeria’s Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, at the centre of the storm if he will allow opposition parties to have a level playing field in the country’s upcoming general elections in 2027.
On October 23 last year, Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appointed and swore-in a new INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, a Professor of Law at one of the country’s foremost universities, the University of Jos. Previously unknown in the country’s national landscape, his appointment immediately elicited controversy that led Muslims to call for his removal. Nigeria is almost equally divided between Christians and Muslims but has mostly been ruled by Muslims. He had previously written a legal brief in 2020 in which he described the killings in parts of Northern Nigeria as “crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide” against Christians. Northern Nigeria’s Muslim-dominated leaders fear that he may be biased against them on account of his religious views and called for his immediate removal.
While that controversy was yet to die down, it was revealed last month that he had rooted for the victory of Tinubu in the country’s last general elections in 2023. Nigeria’s social media-savvy generation dug up a comment he made on someone’s X post in which he simply said, “victory is sure.” The post soon went viral and became a topic of discussion in beer parlours. He tried to wriggle himself out of the controversy by denying that the account linked to him belonged to him, claiming it was a pseudo account, but this did not work, as Grok, the Elon Musk-founded AI platform, verified the account as rightfully owned by him. To compound the matter, his phone number and personal email address were linked to the account.
The most talked-about aspect of his leadership is his inability, or perhaps unwillingness, to manage Nigeria’s political parties. In Nigeria, it is the duty of INEC to regulate the activities of political parties as well as conduct elections.
Nigeria has two dominant political parties, the All Progressives Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, the country has recently witnessed the emergence of two other parties with growing memberships – the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC. These are in addition to another 18 smaller parties, all competing in the political space.
So far, only the ruling APC appears to enjoy clear recognition from INEC. Other major parties are being pushed out of the electoral calendar by being excluded from the list of parties approved to contest the elections. This is allegedly being engineered through Nigeria’s compromised court system. Majority of Nigerians believe the government is backing individuals to file weak lawsuits aimed at destabilising these parties. INEC has, in turn, appeared to side with those groups by listing APC-aligned members on its website as the legitimate “faction” of rival parties rather than rejecting them. Instead of helping those parties organise and compete fairly, the commission has done little to support their participation in the upcoming elections. It is alleged that the ultimate aim is to ensure that the president is the only viable candidate in the election, thereby presenting Nigerians with a fait accompli.
Image: Minister Nyesom Wike, President Tinubu’s man-friday, and powerful minister of the federal capital territory. Considered to be the distruptor of Nigeria’s electoral system for a free and fair elections in 2027
The PDP, for instance, has been torn apart by “factions” allegedly fuelled by Nyesom Wike, the powerful Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and one of President Tinubu’s right-hand men. He has sworn not to allow the party to field a formidable presidential candidate in the upcoming elections.
For over a year now, the PDP has been enamoured in courtroom battles stirred by Wike and his followers. At every turn, INEC has thrown its weight behind his group, to the dismay of majority of Nigerians.
But now, the upper courts appear to be doing justice. Recent rulings have poured chilly water on claims of legitimacy by the so-called Wike “faction” of the party. The Supreme Court of Nigeria was the first to pull the rug from under their feet when it held that the faction cannot legally make representations on behalf of the party in court because its members had been expelled from the party.
But INEC still drags its feet in implementing the decision of the highest court of the land and has continued to retain the names of the leadership of the unlawful “faction” on its website.
Image: Judge Uche Agomah: Rough judge who awarded litigant reliefs which they did not sought for in their applications before her. Described by the Court of Appeal as acting ultra petita and her judgement berated at superstructure which the substructure has been removed
INEC claims to have derived its authority from the decision of a rogue judge, Justice Uche Agomoh of the Federal High Court, Ibadan Division, who ruled and granted reliefs that none of the litigants in the case sought. In legal parlance, she acted ultra petita.
It turned out that Justice Agomoh was for 28years, a lawyer and Head of Chambers to Chief J.B. Daudu, SAN, counsel to Minister Wike’s “faction” of the PDP. It was from J.B Daudu’s employ that she was appointed a judge. Critics argue that her interest was conflicted and that she ought to have removed herself from all PDP-related cases in which her former law firm had an interest.
Image: Justice Uchechukwu Onyemenam, Justice of the Court of Appeal who berated the judge of the lower court by calling her ruling, ultra peitat – legal maxim meaning granting what the litigants did not ask for.
Last week, a panel of three Justices of the Court of Appeal criticised Justice Agomoh in a concurring judgement, referring to her ruling as “ultra petita”, a Latin maxim for a judge who grants reliefs not sought by litigants. The Justices voided her ruling, declaring it a nullity ab initio in view of the subsisting Supreme Court judgement of March 30. The Justices likened her ruling to a superstructure whose substructure had been removed, and which therefore could not stand.
The Court of Appeal held that the earlier Supreme Court judgement is final and that no lower court can reopen issues already settled.
For now, the nation awaits what INEC will do; whether the commission will give due regard to the legitimate claimants to the leadership of the party led by Kabiru Turaki, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, SAN, or otherwise. Incidentally, the Turaki-led PDP presents former President Goodluck Jonathan, the erstwhile Nigerian President who has achieved a global image as an exceptional democrat, as its presidential candidate in the upcoming general elections; an offer which Minister Wike wants Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to reject.
Nigeria remains a fragile state. With a population of over 250 million, it is Africa’s most populous country. Over the past decade, it has faced violent Islamist insurgencies, including Boko Haram, ISWAP, and ISIS-linked groups, while kidnapping has become increasingly widespread. Combined with economic hardship, even a minor trigger could ignite unrest that spreads quickly across Africa and beyond. INEC’s actions—or failure to act—could become that trigger for a growing and dissatisfied population.