Source: Great Lakes Post

Watching Moncrieff & Wrong was yet another sign that Kagame’s presidency may be nearing its end

21 March 2025

The ongoing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has escalated dramatically since late 2021, with the M23 rebel group gaining significant territory in North and South Kivu. Backed extensively by Rwanda, M23 is believed to be operating under the direction and logistical support of Rwandan forces, who are said to have deployed 8,000 to 12,000 troops on Congolese soil. The Congolese government views this not as a domestic rebellion but as an act of international aggression by Rwanda. While Rwanda claims its actions are motivated by security concerns and threats posed by Hutu extremist groups operating from DRC, critics argue these justifications do not align with current ground realities.

The situation is further complicated by regional dynamics. Burundi initially supported the DRC with thousands of troops, but after military setbacks and fear of direct conflict with Rwanda, it has recently shifted its stance and begun re-engaging with Kigali diplomatically. Uganda, too, has a complex role, having deployed troops against Islamic insurgents in Ituri province, while also being accused by Rwanda of covertly supporting M23. This multifaceted regional involvement risks transforming a national crisis into a broader conflict engulfing the Great Lakes region.

A notable concern is the sheer military disparity. While the Congolese army struggles with discipline, equipment, and morale, the M23 and accompanying Rwandan forces are well-organized and technologically advanced, reportedly using drones, GPS systems, and jamming equipment. Despite support from regional peacekeeping forces and even foreign mercenaries, the DRC military has been unable to hold strategic cities like Goma and Bukavu, raising fears that Kinshasa itself could eventually be under threat.

Historically, Rwanda has backed rebel movements in DRC multiple times since the 1990s. Observers now believe Rwanda may be aiming to establish a protectorate-style zone in Kivu or possibly even instigate a change of leadership in Kinshasa, echoing its past successful efforts in the late 1990s. The political umbrella of M23, the Congo River Alliance, openly seeks to unseat President Tshisekedi, further fueling fears that the crisis could topple the Congolese government altogether.

International response has been tepid. While the UK and other Western nations once pressured Rwanda into backing down in 2012 by cutting aid, recent years have seen a reluctance to challenge Rwanda, especially due to geopolitical and migration-related partnerships. British support to Rwanda under its asylum deal effectively muted criticism, even as Rwanda’s involvement in DRC intensified. Analysts argue that coordinated international pressure, especially through diplomatic and financial levers, remains one of the few effective means to de-escalate the situation.

The broader humanitarian impact is dire. Up to 800,000 people have been displaced, with many camps destroyed by M23. Regional instability is increasing, and there are growing warnings that the conflict could destabilize neighboring countries. The M23’s continued expansion, coupled with the weakening of Congolese and regional resistance, suggests the conflict is far from over. Without robust international mediation and accountability for foreign involvement, eastern DRC may become the flashpoint for a wider regional war.