The whole Horn could become engulfed in conflict if this proxy war spirals out of control.

Somalian Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi recently told local media that his country might back anti-government groups in Ethiopia if Addis goes through with recognizing Somaliland’s independence in exchange for military-commercial port rights per their Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This builds upon the observation from early January that Somalia wants to ally with Eritrea and especially Egypt for waging Hybrid War against Ethiopia and Somaliland. Here are Fiqi’s exact words:

“The option to have contacts with armed rebels in Ethiopia or rebels that are fighting against the Ethiopia regime — if it continues this, to have contact with them is an option open to Somalia, it’s a door open to us.

We have not reached that stage, there is a hope there will be a solution. But it is a path open to us … it’s the correct thing to go there, to take that path to meet them, to support them, to stand by them (the rebels). But that will come when they continue their hostility, and attempt to implement the so-called agreement.

We discussed (ties with the TPLF), but at this time the collapse of Ethiopia is not in the interest of Somalia and the Horn of Africa region. But if they continue to [support] those opposing Somalia and with the secessionist groups [that] they have signed [an] agreement with, it’s an option for us.”

To begin with, there’s no comparison between Ethiopia’s relations with Somaliland and Somalia’s envisaged ones with anti-government Ethiopian groups. Somaliland actually achieved independence right before Somalia but then agreed to an ultimately failed unity project that ended in 1991. It then redeclared its independence and has been functioning as an unrecognized sovereign state since then. Somaliland just wants to be left alone to develop in peace and doesn’t support anti-Somalian groups.

Anti-government Ethiopian groups are completely different since some of them have carried out acts of terrorism and have been designated by the state accordingly (though some have since had this designation lifted to facilitate peace talks). Regardless of whether or not they had genuinely homegrown beginnings, they’ve all since come to function as foreign states’ proxies. None of these groups can claim any level of sovereignty akin to Somaliland either. They’re basically local warlords, nothing more.

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Somalia Is Hellbent on Waging Hybrid War on Ethiopia? The Horn of Africa Could become Engulfed in Conflict.